DID THE U.S. SHOOT DOWN THE CHINESE SATELLITE YAOGON-50(02)?
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Chinese satellite Yaogon 50(02) was reported to have broken up, but strangely, Singapore state media knows nothing. The following timeline is most interesting.
(1) 9 Mar: The Global Network reported Chinese company MizarVision has been tracking U.S. military asset in the Iran war theatre and posting their movements on "X".
(2) 15 Mar: China launched Yaogan-50(02).
(3) 8 May: US sanctions 3 Chinese companies - MizarVision, Earth Eye and Chang Guang
(4) 1 Jun: ABC reported Chinese satellite imagery of ME bases is helping Iran, US intel says.
(5) 17 Jul: Iran missile attack on Muwalffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan killed 3 US servicemen.
(6) 2 Sep Reuters report US and China are developing sophisticated counter-space capabilities, including satellites capable of approaching, monitoring, inteferring with, or potentially capturing other satellites.
(7) 4 Sep: US Space Force catalogued 43 debris objects associated with the satellite at roughly 600-1,100 km altitude. Internet wildfire -- Chinese satellite has broken apart!
(8) 11 Sep BRICS summit in India (11-13 Sep)
(9) 12 Sep : Wall Street Journal reported "US links Chinese satellite imagery to Iranian strike that killed three troopers"
(10) 13 Sep:President Xi left the BRICS summit at noon, did not attend the final evening discussions. Chinese officials said he left after his part was successfully concluded. There are unsubstantiated reports Xi was unwell during Modi's speech.
(11)15 Sep: Reuters reported US acknowledges it operates weapons in space capable of defending against hostile space-enabled attack.
THE TWO QUESTIONS THAT NEEDED ANSWERING:
A. Did China provide Iran with satellite imagery to Iran so it now has better accuracy?
B. Did the U.S. destroy the Chinese satellite?
(1) 9 Mar Global Network on MizarVision:
Think of the satellite ecosystem as :
Operator → Middlemen → End users
The Operator owns and operates the satellites. Middlemen are the companies who prep the data, enhance it, and make it meaningful for their customers. They use AI-enhanced satellite images, geospatial geopolitical intel and software tools that identify and tag military forces across vast areas, a capability previously only a government agency can do. Depends on the type of work, they may utilise info from a few different satellites. Users could be commercial, military, government agencies, researchers etc. MrzarVision is a Chinese "Middleman". They have been tracking US assets in the ME theatre and posting images on "X". If you have seen some of those images of US aircraft carriers for example, they probably came from MizarVision. Why are they doing this for free? Who knows!
(2) 15 Mar - Yaogon 50(02) launched:
Is this defence or civilian use -- official info says for land surveys, crop estimation, disaster prevention and relief purposes.
Optics vs radar
- Optical satellite - takes photos, needs light (clouds. darkness. atmospheric conditions constrain collection)
- SAR (Synthetic-Aperture Radar) satellite. These type uses radar pulses, reflected signals instead of optics, works day and night, cuts through clouds, rain, fog and smoke. For military surveillance, good at maritime surveillance on ships against homogeneous background of seas. Provides info on position, heading, formation, approx speed.
Analysts think Yaogan 50(02) is SAR satellite based on:
- high altitude 952 km
- unusual retrograde orbit (anti-clockwise) which gives it very high relative speed - 104 mins one revolution.
- 142° tilt which means its orbital plane is the 38°N - 38° latitude band. The ME region is within this band.
- the 142° tilt is technically consistent with SAR satellites.
- it works in a pair - Yaogon-50(01) was launched in January. This has same 142° tilt with a 112° RAAN. (Don't worry about the technicalities. It's a way to describe the different paths of the 2 satellites' orbit within the same latitude band.)
- a pair of SAR satellites is probably the Chinese architecture.
A briefer on military "listening":
SIGINT (Signals Intelligent) - Intel gathering by intercepting electronic signals (not photos) in 3 ways:
- ELINT (Electronic Intel) - intercepts non-communication signals, especially radar emissions.
- COMINT (Communications Intel) - eavesdropping - intercepts radio or other transmitted messages.
- FISINT (Foreign Instrumentation Signals Intel) - intercepts signals from things such as missile telemetry, weapons tests, or other instruments.
ELINT systems work in consternations of many satellites. China's consternation is called Yaogon -30 (also called Chuangan-5/CX-5). It comprises of 30 satellites.
China has a whole system approach in their military satellite systems:
ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) - detects electronic signals of communication emissions. It's cueing the environment. Senses something there.
SAR - tasked to find out what has been sensed -- ID vessels for example
Optical imagery - confirm ID and characterise the target surveilled.
Bottom line -- yes, Yaogan-50(02) is part of the satellite system that tracks US military assets in the ME theatre.
But is it actually destroyed as all the noises in social media say? China's SpaceMapper list the satellite as still active!
(3) 8 May - US sanctions MizarVision, Earth Eye and Chang Guang:
The 3 Chinese companies are "Middlemen". Although private companies, the state holds certain shares. They all need the PLA (People's Liberation Army) certifications.
(4) 9 Jun - ABC report US claims Chinese satellite imagery helping Iran:
9 Jun is the first time US officials made this claim. But it is not accusing the Chinese government directly. Could be anybody having access to Chinese satellite data.
(5) 17 Jul - Muwalffaq Salti Air Base attack by Iran:
The 17 Jul attack in US base in Jordan seems to have the accuracy Iran never had before.
(6) 2 Sep - Reuters report US and China developing sophisticated counter-space capabilities:
This is an admission of something most people already knows. The frontier conflict is in space. We just don't know, but suspect, there are already weapons in orbit in space.
(7) 4 Sep - US Space Force catalogued 43 debris of Yaogan-50(02):
This originated from an "X" post on 4 Sep by Jonathan McDowell, a space activity tracker and former astrophysicist at Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysicist. His info comes from publicly available Space-Track.Org maintaned by 18th Space Defence Squadron which tracks space debris. Space-Track showed this debris on 4 Sep.
Note Space-Track showed this on 4 Sep. It does not mean a one-time fragmentaion event happened on that day. Could be earlier. Could be over a period of time.
According to McDowell, the fragments are relatively low velocity. This means it could be a battery event, a propulsion problem or even insulation problem. It is not a kinetic event.
(8) 11 Sep - BRICS summit in India (11-13 Sep)
(9) 12 Sep - WSJ report US links Chinese satellite imagery to Iranian strike:
Whilst the BRICS summit was going on, US disclosed on 12 Sep Chinese satellite imagery were used on the Iranian attack on their base in Jordan which killed 3 troopers. Note again US makes no claim China did it. But to make tis announcement one month after the event during a BRICS meet is rather strange.
(10) 13 Sep - President Xi left the BRICS summit:
Xi gave a speech in the morning and left in the afternoon. Other leaders remained to complete some speeches or discussions in the evening. He did not attend the final evening discussions. Chinese officials said he left after his part was successfully concluded.
Social media was abuzz that Xi was unwell during Mohdi's speech that the Indian PM asked "Are you OK?". Indian sources later clarified that it was a earphone glitch problem Xi was having. A tiktok clip authenticated this.
Meanwhile another more dramatic report of Xi having some sort of cardiac event swamped social media. He didn't want admission to Indian hospital, flown back to Beijing, helicopters lifted him straight from airport to hospital. High drama. This report came from Wanjun Xie, the US-based chairman of the exile opposition group China Democratic Party. I think Xi must be the luckiest man on Earth. This is about the 10th heart attack Xi has had that I have read.
(11 )15 Sep - Reuters report - US has weapons in space:
This is the first time US has acknowledged it has on-orbit weapons. What is interesting is the timing of this announcement.
Don't expect co-orbital kinetic strikes, missiles shooting each other in space. It will most probably be capabilities to jam, blind or dazzle, hack, or disable another satellite. Physical disabling would probably be some form of directed energy.
My assessment:
US knew Chinese "Middlemen" has been providing satellite imagery and geospatial intel to the Iranians. Although US never claims China aided Iran, it was most certainly with CCP tacit approval that the "middlemen" leaked or sold the info. US sanctioning the 3 Chinese "middlemen" was a message to stop aiding Iran. Despite this, Iran was still able to hit US airbase in Jordan in July.
Yaogan-50(02) is a military-use satellite which suffered some fragmentation but it is still carrying an operational pay load. The US didn't shoot it down.
Now that we know with certainty US has on-orbit weapons, it is possible they did cause some fragmentation on Yaogan-50(02) on or before 4 Sep. It is quite possible a minor damage was intentional just enough to send a more direct message.
Is is also possible that by the time Xi finished his speech at BRICS on the morning of 13 Sep, Beijing would have analysed Washington's 12 Sep accusation of Chinese satellite involvement with the hit on the Jordan base and perhaps linked this to Yaogan-50(02) fragmentation. Could the Chinese have interpreted this as a real message that they read into the Yaogan satellite fragmentation, a serious development that Xi had to hurry home?
SIGINT (Signals Intelligent) - Intel gathering by intercepting electronic signals (not photos) in 3 ways:
- ELINT (Electronic Intel) - intercepts non-communication signals, especially radar emissions.
- COMINT (Communications Intel) - eavesdropping - intercepts radio or other transmitted messages.
- FISINT (Foreign Instrumentation Signals Intel) - intercepts signals from things such as missile telemetry, weapons tests, or other instruments.
ELINT systems work in consternations of many satellites. China's consternation is called Yaogon -30 (also called Chuangan-5/CX-5). It comprises of 30 satellites.
China has a whole system approach in their military satellite systems:
ELINT (Electronic Intelligence) - detects electronic signals of communication emissions. It's cueing the environment. Senses something there.
SAR - tasked to find out what has been sensed -- ID vessels for example
Optical imagery - confirm ID and characterise the target surveilled.
Bottom line -- yes, Yaogan-50(02) is part of the satellite system that tracks US military assets in the ME theatre.
But is it actually destroyed as all the noises in social media say? China's SpaceMapper list the satellite as still active!
(3) 8 May - US sanctions MizarVision, Earth Eye and Chang Guang:
The 3 Chinese companies are "Middlemen". Although private companies, the state holds certain shares. They all need the PLA (People's Liberation Army) certifications.
(4) 9 Jun - ABC report US claims Chinese satellite imagery helping Iran:
9 Jun is the first time US officials made this claim. But it is not accusing the Chinese government directly. Could be anybody having access to Chinese satellite data.
(5) 17 Jul - Muwalffaq Salti Air Base attack by Iran:
The 17 Jul attack in US base in Jordan seems to have the accuracy Iran never had before.
(6) 2 Sep - Reuters report US and China developing sophisticated counter-space capabilities:
This is an admission of something most people already knows. The frontier conflict is in space. We just don't know, but suspect, there are already weapons in orbit in space.
(7) 4 Sep - US Space Force catalogued 43 debris of Yaogan-50(02):
This originated from an "X" post on 4 Sep by Jonathan McDowell, a space activity tracker and former astrophysicist at Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysicist. His info comes from publicly available Space-Track.Org maintaned by 18th Space Defence Squadron which tracks space debris. Space-Track showed this debris on 4 Sep.
Note Space-Track showed this on 4 Sep. It does not mean a one-time fragmentaion event happened on that day. Could be earlier. Could be over a period of time.
According to McDowell, the fragments are relatively low velocity. This means it could be a battery event, a propulsion problem or even insulation problem. It is not a kinetic event.
(8) 11 Sep - BRICS summit in India (11-13 Sep)
(9) 12 Sep - WSJ report US links Chinese satellite imagery to Iranian strike:
Whilst the BRICS summit was going on, US disclosed on 12 Sep Chinese satellite imagery were used on the Iranian attack on their base in Jordan which killed 3 troopers. Note again US makes no claim China did it. But to make tis announcement one month after the event during a BRICS meet is rather strange.
(10) 13 Sep - President Xi left the BRICS summit:
Xi gave a speech in the morning and left in the afternoon. Other leaders remained to complete some speeches or discussions in the evening. He did not attend the final evening discussions. Chinese officials said he left after his part was successfully concluded.
Social media was abuzz that Xi was unwell during Mohdi's speech that the Indian PM asked "Are you OK?". Indian sources later clarified that it was a earphone glitch problem Xi was having. A tiktok clip authenticated this.
Meanwhile another more dramatic report of Xi having some sort of cardiac event swamped social media. He didn't want admission to Indian hospital, flown back to Beijing, helicopters lifted him straight from airport to hospital. High drama. This report came from Wanjun Xie, the US-based chairman of the exile opposition group China Democratic Party. I think Xi must be the luckiest man on Earth. This is about the 10th heart attack Xi has had that I have read.
(11 )15 Sep - Reuters report - US has weapons in space:
This is the first time US has acknowledged it has on-orbit weapons. What is interesting is the timing of this announcement.
Don't expect co-orbital kinetic strikes, missiles shooting each other in space. It will most probably be capabilities to jam, blind or dazzle, hack, or disable another satellite. Physical disabling would probably be some form of directed energy.
My assessment:
US knew Chinese "Middlemen" has been providing satellite imagery and geospatial intel to the Iranians. Although US never claims China aided Iran, it was most certainly with CCP tacit approval that the "middlemen" leaked or sold the info. US sanctioning the 3 Chinese "middlemen" was a message to stop aiding Iran. Despite this, Iran was still able to hit US airbase in Jordan in July.
Yaogan-50(02) is a military-use satellite which suffered some fragmentation but it is still carrying an operational pay load. The US didn't shoot it down.
Now that we know with certainty US has on-orbit weapons, it is possible they did cause some fragmentation on Yaogan-50(02) on or before 4 Sep. It is quite possible a minor damage was intentional just enough to send a more direct message.
Is is also possible that by the time Xi finished his speech at BRICS on the morning of 13 Sep, Beijing would have analysed Washington's 12 Sep accusation of Chinese satellite involvement with the hit on the Jordan base and perhaps linked this to Yaogan-50(02) fragmentation. Could the Chinese have interpreted this as a real message that they read into the Yaogan satellite fragmentation, a serious development that Xi had to hurry home?
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