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AIR INDIA LOSSES - FROM GENERIC CRITIQUE TO PRECISE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS (PART 3 OF 4)

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Part 1 covers " A Severe Contraction in Top-Line Revenue" Part 2 covers "Catastrophic Foreign Exchange (FX) Losses" Part 3 covers "The cost of fleet maintenance & supply chain stagnation" Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul (MRO) costs: 2026 - ₹14,976.45 crore : 2025 - ₹13,901.82 crore Most Singaporeans' perception of Indian work culture, stemming not from a racist bias but from so-called lived experiences with Indian bureaucracy, led to generic commentary that heavily points to the "transformation and refurbishment programme" of Air India's fleet as a massive corporate reinvention that somehow got mismanaged and blew up the costs. Local commentaries misinterpret the fleet stagnation as a mere failure of management execution or slow worker productivity. The disruptions to the spare parts supply chain simply compounded their problems and sky-rocketed costs. The mental picture of an inutile Air India bumbling through a massive probl...

INDONESIA CLAIMS 148 CARGOES OF LNG SOLD TO SINGAPORE ARE RE-EXPORTED - FALSE AND HERE'S THE RECEIPT

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Bahlil Lahadalia, the Indonesia Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition, says “I believe that not all of the 148 cargoes we send are used for Singapore’s own needs, but some are traded and subsequently exported to other countries.” This is so vague that it would be a fool to pin anything down. It is simply a politician's careless comment in an ambush interview, spoken with much ambiguity. The 148 cargoes -- which time frame? Some are traded -- by whom? Exported to other countries - how? There used to be a TV comedy series anchored by Bill Crosby, yes the one who went to jail for aggravated indecent assault, it's called "Kids Say The Darndest Things". Well, ditto politicians sometimes. Bahlil's comment is the stuff that headlines are made of. It is a claim Singapore is profiting at the expense of Indonesia - a frenzy feed to legacy and social media following Suharto's accusation foreigners are stealing the country's wealth.  The kne...

AS INDONESIANS THROW TANTRUMS, THE HAZE MUST NOT BLUR THEIR VISION OF WHO THEIR REAL FRIENDS ARE

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In the current haze quarrel, Indonesian officials object to noises from Singapore -- the island state should shut up and appreciate the oxygen the Indonesian forests give us when they are not burning, Indonesia should stop supplying gas to countries that don't respect them, President Prabowo commented Indonesian wealth has been stolen by foreigners. And then Indonesia walked the talk - they cut gas supplies to Singapore.  Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong stated at the PAP convention that Singapore expects all parties to "honour their commitments" under commercial agreements, adding that Singaporean gas importers would take steps to protect their legal rights. "Do not lecture Indonesia about its commitment to honouring and respecting contracts." so said Bahlil Lahadalia, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition (who also serves as the Energy and Mineral Resources Minister). Bahlil Lahadalia firmly denied any breach of ...

AIR INDIA LOSSES - FROM GENERIC CRITIQUE TO PRECISE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS (PART 2 OF 4)

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Part 1 covers "A Severe Contraction in Top-Line Revenue" Part 2 covers "Catastrophic Foreign Exchange (FX) Losses" Y/e 31 Mar 2026 -- FX loss ₹7,388.23 crore (US$880 mn). (2025 loss ₹1,545.01 crore) We now come to the second core loss-driver - FX losses. Most Singaporeans view all Temasek investments in India come with huge currency risks because the rupee is weak. The local debates have not gone into understanding where the FX loss is coming from and can the bleeding be stopped. The FX loss is the financial consequence in the balance sheet, but what drove the operating decisions there, are there ways to mitigate it, if so, why was it not done, and is Tata-SIA doing something about it? These are the type of questions in a proper financial analysis which are not asked. One line sums it up - All Indian airlines are playing a long term game of short USD position holders with no hedging strategy, thus subject to the merciless vagaries of currency fluctu...

AIR INDIA LOSSES - FROM GENERIC CRITIQUE TO PRECISE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS (PART 1 OF 4)

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This 4-part article about Air India losses has been sitting on my back burner for quite some time and I hesitated to finish it as the headlines have long since passed. My chance encounter of a post in the website of NUS' Institute of South Asia Studies has rekindled my interest. The post "Air India’s Turnaround: Big Ambitions, Bigger Financial Challenges" by Vinod Rai 10 September 2026 regurgitates the same bland generalisation of " disruptions ...  of Pakistani airspace, geopolitical tensions ..... elevated fuel prices, supply-chain constraints and continuing difficulties in obtaining and deploying aircraft efficiently. The tragic Air India crash in 2025 .... ongoing fleet refurbishment and transformation programme."   There's nothing new; same generic conversation. Public anger and parliamentary debate focused heavily on the cash drain on SIA. The local debate in Singapore frames Air India’s problems through the lens of poor passenger yields or loc...