IT'S NOT A QUESTION OF SINGAPORE SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT NEGOTIATE WITH IRAN, THE REALITY IS IT CANNOT

From social media I see majority of Singaporeans take the view the government should negotiate with Iran to allow our vessels to pass through Hormuz Strait. They contend sticking to principles of international law is senseless when rising prices is going to hurt everyone. So it seems the threshold for pain is extremely low, what my late mom would say "buay cheah kor" (literally means cannot eat suffering). I appreciate there is a breaking point for everyone. But for a state, we navigate a crisis based on what kind of shock it is on a time horizon. Will it end tomorrow, next week, next month... is it a permanent thing? For all we know, the strait will be passable next week as US navy has entered the area.

What I like to address is the call for the government to negotiate. Do these folks actually understand what it is all about? None of those vessels -- oil tankers, LNG, containerships, that are flying Singapore flags and stuck inside or outside the Hormuz Strait, belong to us. We have no state-owned oil company, no state-owned shipping company. 

Your hear of Malaysian an Indonesian tankers getting across after their governments spoke to Iran. Well Malaysia's Petronas and Indonesia's Pertamina both own and operate a fleet of tankers. Singapore has none.

Some argue that negotiation is about risk reduction, not risk elimination. Therefore any partial assurances would have value. They say small states survive by hedging, not taking absolutist positions. By that they mean sucker up to the US. That is not totally wrong. However, the idea that Singapore can simply negotiate safety assumes a level of control over global shipping that the state does not actually have. 

All ships have to be listed in a shipping register of a country for purpose of insurance and entry into most ports in the world.  "Flag of convenience" is the flag of a country that offers an open ship registry with characteristic traits of low taxes and fees; minimal regulatory enforcement, little requirement for local ownership or presence. It attracts shipowners mainly looking to avoid stricter rules elsewhere. Flags of convenience includes Panama, Liberia, Marshall Islands. 

Singapore ship registry is not seen as a flag of convenience but as a high quality and reputable registry. The strength of Singapore registry is strong regulation and enforcement' creditable maritime administration (IMO rules, safety, crew welfare, etc); good port state control record; and has a reputation of a trusted maritime hub. 

Singapore is not just a country -- it's a flag state and shipping hub embedded in a global system. That means ships flying the Singapore crescent and stars are not "Singapore-owned". They are part of international commerce with mixed ownership, chartering, and cargo flows. The many vessels flying Singapore flag do not represent Singapore's national interest.

Singapore flag does not neutralise geopolitical associations

A ship's flag determines legal jurisdiction and protection expectations. But ownership, chartering and cargo determine geopolitical sensitivity.

So if Singapore negotiates with Iran, what exactly are we negotiating about? Because the exposure isn't clean or national. It's networked and entangled. 

Can Singapore realistically guarantee safe passage for all Singapore-flagged vessels, regardless of who is behind them?
- Will a Singapore-flagged vessel owned by the US be allowed to pass?
- Or will a Singapore-flagged vessel chartered by Israel also be allowed to pass?
- How about vessels flying other flags and owned  or chartered by other countries but delivering cargoes to Singapore be allowed to pass?

The real crux of the matter

Negotiation assumes clear control over what you are negotiating for. But Singapore government does not control who charters the vessels, who owns the cargo, and how Iran interpret those links. 

So even if Singapore bows and negotiates, it cannot guarantee uniform treatment of all Singapore-flagged vessels and immunity from selective targeting. 

If Singapore accepts conditions, say toll payment of US$2m per vessel, does the government guarantee payment to Iran, and does the government have the authority to impose the conditions on vessels flying the Singapore flag.

Uncle Sam to the rescue, just as they did in the 1980's Hormuz crisis

I have always taken the stand this is a short crisis because Iran's military capability to enforce a blockade has been severely neutralised by US bombings. It's entire submarine fleet of 16, it's naval vessels including mine laying crafts, and hundreds of fast boats, now lie at the bottom of the Persian Gulf.  As US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said, the US shares the Persian Gulf with Iran -- the bottom half for them. It's coastal missile and drone underground facilities have been destroyed. Nevertheless they still have the odd inventory somewhere, still capable of launching some missiles and drones. 

As of 13 April, it's been confirmed US naval vessels have sailed through the Hormuz Strait and mine sweepers are clearing route security and escort preparation. The US do not specify positions of all vessels, but what is known is two Burke-class destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy are in the Hormuz Strait and have started operations to open the passageway.

The destroyers are part of the wider deployment, not inside the strait, but nearby. These included Amphibious Marine forces USS Tripoli and USS Boxer; Littoral mine warfare ships USS Canberra, USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara; and multiple other guided-missile destroyers. The US has announced a naval blockade posture and potentially to escort commercial vessels.

Trump had sometime back commented the US does not need UK's assistance after the war has been won, Singapore does not need to bow to Iran when someone is going to open the strait.

This platform has withdrawn it's subscriber widget. If you like blogs like this and wish to know whenever there is a new post, click the button to my FB and follow me there. I usually intro my new blogs there. Thanks.